The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19

We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit–cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.

Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election

Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger.

Economic policy uncertainty and corporate donation: evidence from private firms in Korea

This study examines the association between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and private firms' corporate donations. Based on resource constraints and the conservation of resources (COR) theory, we argue that private firms are constantly facing resource constraints and their resource conservation motive becomes apparent when EPU is heightened. Therefore, we expect that corporate donations are negatively related to EPU. Using audited corporate donations from 48,903 private firms in Korea during 2002–2019, we find that private firms' donations are negatively related to EPU. We find that private firms operating in more competitive conditions increase their donations, but this positive association between market competition and donations is moderated by EPU. We find that private firms' donations increased when the progressive party is in power, but this positive relationship is also moderated by EPU. Our results suggest that firms reduce their level of corporate giving to conserve resources as a precautionary saving motive when they face higher EPU. Our paper contributes to the strand of literature on corporate donations and EPU by providing evidence that EPU significantly affects private firms' donations. We also find that firms' strategic motives and political pressure to engage in corporate donations are moderated by EPU.

Training in lockdown: The impact of stringency measures on the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games

Due to COVID-19, the 32nd Olympic Games were postponed temporarily for the first time, apart from those cancelled during the First and Second World Wars. Did the pandemic also affect the results? We aim to understand the impact of stringency measures on athletes' performance in the Olympics. For many athletes, the Olympics are the pinnacle of their careers, and they follow intense training schedules to arrive at the Games in peak physical condition. Stringency measures may have affected their results by making it harder for them to train effectively, to access sports infrastructure, to meet teammates, and more generally to follow an athletic lifestyle. Our quantitative analysis shows that stringency measures had an effect on the number of Olympic medals won, especially in team sports. This is consistent with the idea that stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions made it harder for teams to train together and achieve the necessary chemistry and harmony to succeed in such a competitive event. Furthermore, women were more severely penalized by higher stringency measures than men in team events. © The Author(s) 2023.

Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity.

This paper estimates how strongly COVID-19 containment policies have impacted aggregate economic activity. We use a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate how containment zones of different severity across India impacted district-level nighttime light intensity, as well as household income and consumption. From May to July 2020, nighttime light intensity was 9.1 % lower in districts with the most severe restrictions compared with districts with the least severe restrictions, which could imply between 5.8 % and 6.6 % lower GDP. Nighttime light intensity was only 1.6 % lower in districts with intermediate restrictions. The differences were largest in May during the graded lockdown, and tapered in June and July. Lower house-hold income and consumption corresponding to zone-wise restrictions corroborate these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density, older residents, and more services employment. The large magnitudes of the findings suggest that governments should carefully consider the economic costs of country-wide pandemic containment policies while weighing the trade-offs against public health benefits. Keywords: Containment policies, COVID-19, Nighttime lights, India.

Der Sonderfonds für Kulturveranstaltungen — ein Versicherungsinstrument

Der Sonderfonds des Bundes für Kulturveranstaltungen ist das zentrale Instrument zur Unterstützung der Kultur- und Veranstaltungsbranche und dabei eines von mehreren Maßnahmen, die von Bund und Ländern zur Bewältigung der Coronapandemie aufgelegt wurden. Der Sonderfonds ist ein versicherungsartiges Instrument, das Planungssicherheit im Vorfeld und bei der Durchführung von Veranstaltungen geben soll. Der Sonderfonds ist mit bis zu 2,5 Mrd. Euro ausgestattet und startete am 1. Juli 2021.Alternate :The federal special fund for cultural events is the central support instrument for the culture and events industry and is one of several measures that have been put in place by the federal and state governments to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. The special fund is an insurance-like instrument that is intended to provide planning security in the run-up to and during events. It is endowed with 2.5 billion euros and started on 1 July, 2021. The low outflow of funds in relation to the sum insured demonstrates the fund's importance as insurance for the culture and event industry during the pandemic.

The impact of Digitalized Communication on the effectiveness of Local Administrative Authorities – Findings from Central European Countries in the COVID-19 Crisis

This paper analyses the impact of the use of digital communication tools in administrative procedures on the effectiveness of local administrative authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic. It considers COVID-19-driven changes in the legal competence of the institutional unit and administrative authorities' orientation to good governance as mediators of this relationship. By applying partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to survey data (N = 610) from five central European countries, we show that the accelerated use of digitalized communication tools driven by the COVID-19 situation has a positive effect on the effectiveness of local administrative authorities. Our data also indicate that the new laws, instructions and good governance driven by the COVID-19 situation – based on mostly convergent administrative traditions and European trends – partially mediate the relationship between the use of digital communication tools and administrative effectiveness. These findings do not significantly differ between participating countries and bureaucratic traditions. Consequently, the COVID-19 crisis proved to be a joint facilitator of responsive public governance that remained compliant with the rule of law, regardless of whether the national administrative systems were traditionally more legalistically or managerially oriented.

Electoral Politics of Disaster: how earthquake and pandemic relief was used to earn votes

Disasters can be good for incumbent governments. Amidst an emergency, budgets can be revised and reallocated in a hurry, framing the government as a 'saviour,' issuing contracts to the government's business clientele and/or prioritising the electoral base more than the victims. Thus elected officials can curry favour with voters and increase their chances of retaining their seats. We examine this claim in the context of Albania, a middle-income country with weak public institutions. We show that the relief for two calamities, a destructive earthquake in 2019 and the Covid-19 pandemic, was used by the government to mobilise votes, thereby increasing the likelihood of electoral success in 2021. Both earthquake relief funding and Covid-19 vaccination rates spiked right before the elections only to drop soon afterwards. This phenomenon, known as the Electoral Politics of Disaster (EPD), poses a risk for the national economy, public health, spatial planning and democracy.

Investor behavior and cryptocurrency market bubbles during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose Cryptocurrencies lack fundamental values and are often subject to behavioral bias leading to market bubbles. This study aims to investigate the contribution of the coronavirus pandemic to the creation of market bubbles. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies four major cryptocurrency market bubbles by using the Phillips et al. (2016) (hereafter PSY) test. Subsequently, the co-movements of the coronavirus proxies with PSY measurement using the wavelet approach were studied. Findings Short-lived bubbles are detected at the beginning of the studied period, and more extended bubble periods are identified at the end. Besides, the empirical results show evidence of significant negative co-movement between each pandemic proxy and each cryptocurrency bubble measurement. Research limitations/implications Given the complex financial dynamics of the cryptocurrency markets due to some behavioral biases in some circumstances, investors can benefit from the date stamping of the bubbles bursting to make the best trading positions. In the same way, governments could support the healthy development of cryptocurrencies by preventing bubbles during such pandemics. Originality/value The financial bubble is commonly attributed to a change in investor behavior. Because traders and investors think they can resell the asset at a higher price in the future. This study explored the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the creation of these bubbles by date stamping their occurrence and explosive periods. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt that explores the contribution of the COVID-19 pandemic to the creation of bubbles caused by a change in the investors' behavior.

Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic

The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a 'hard' and a 'soft' lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent's vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.

Higher order risk attitudes in the time of COVID-19: an experimental study

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents a large increase in background risk for individuals. Like the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme events (e.g. financial downturns, natural disasters, and war) have been shown to change attitudes towards risk. Using a risk apportionment approach, we examine whether risk aversion as well as higher order risk attitudes (HORAs) (prudence and temperance) have changed during COVID-19. This methodology allows us to measure model-free HORAs. We include prudence and temperance as higher order measures, as these two have been largely understudied under extreme events but are determinants of decisions related to the health and financial domains. Once we account for socio-demographic characteristics, we find an overall increase in risk aversion during COVID-19. We also find similar results using a hypothetical survey question which measures willingness to take risks. We do not find changes in prudence and temperance using the risk apportionment methodology.

DISTANCE MEASURES, INCONSISTENCY MATRICES AND ALGORITHMS FOR THE STUDY OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND FINANCIAL CRISES

The article reports that Distance measures, inconsistency matrices and algorithms for the study of epidemiological and financial crises. Topics include methods for multivariate time series analysis and then applies these methods to understand the behavior of financial crises;and substantial homogeneity between the equity indices of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Public Banks, Public Purpose, and Early Actions in the Face of Covid-19

With the outbreak of the global Covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, economic activity came to a grinding halt as demands for financial support in health, business, and government skyrocketed. In spring 2020 we assembled a team of experts to conduct rapid response research on how public banks worldwide responded to the Covid-19 crisis. The team employed case study methods to examine cases in the global north and south. A synthesis of our findings is presented here. We conclude that the most promising public bank responses to the crisis were those substantively guided by public purpose. Where public purpose had a more challenging relationship to public bank responses, the responses were more ambiguous and more difficult to differentiate from private banks. This rapid response study also points to promising lessons for how public banks can help to catalyse momentum to ‘build forward better’ and it raises a series of questions in need of further research. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Review of Political Economy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The impact of the COVID-19 recession on Mexican households: evidence from employment and time use for men, women, and children.

This study examines changes in labor supply, income, and time allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Using an event-study design, we show that the COVID-19 recession had severe negative consequences for Mexican households. In the first month of the pandemic, employment declined by 17 percentage points. Men recovered their employment faster than women, where men's employment approaches original levels by 2021Q2. Women, on the other hand, experienced persistent employment losses. Within-household, men also increased their time spent on household chores while neither gender (persistently) increased their time caring for others. Instead, children reduced their time spent on schoolwork by 25%.

Seeing Covid-19 Through a Subprime Crisis lens: How Structural and Institutional Racism Have Shaped 21st-Century Crises in the U.K. and the U.S.

This special issue aims to use historical examples to gain insight into the socio-economic impact of, and possibilities of recovery from, the Covid-19 pandemic for Black communities. We approach this question by comparing the impact of the pandemic on Black Britons in the United Kingdom with that of the 2008 subprime crisis on Black Americans. We find that, in both cases, a pattern of racially asymmetric losses and race-neutral policy responses that have systematically ignored the disparate losses borne by Black and racial/ethnic minority communities. Both patterns are manifestations of these countries' institutional racism. Relying on insights from stratification economics and using the concept of "racial formation" introduced by Harold Baron in 1985, we show how these nations' historical relationships to slavery and imperialism have led to different structures of racial control. Our review of U.K. government policy includes a critique of the March 2021 report of the U.K. Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities.

COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that football matches may have played a role in the spread of COVID-19 all over Europe. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view, the impact of football matches on the spread of COVID-19 remains unclear. In this paper we study, via a quantitative analysis, the case of Italy, a country badly affected by COVID, and one where attending football matches is very popular. We consider the impact of matches played in January and February 2020 on the dynamic of the pandemic in March and April the same year. Our results, which consider all levels of Italian professional football, and the highest level of amateur football, show that matches played in January and February had an impact on the evolution of the pandemic in March and April. These results suggest that great care must be taken before considering re-opening stadia.

[Economic Implications of the Corona Crisis and Economic Policy Measures]. / Wirtschaftliche Implikationen der Corona-Krise und wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen.

The corona crisis started in China and had great consequences for public health and the economy. In the meantime, high and rapidly growing numbers of cases of infections with SARS-CoV-2 have also been recorded in Japan, Korea, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, France, Spain and above all in the USA. Forecasts of economic growth have been massively revised downwards and governments around the world are struggling to find the right economic policy response. This article describes basic short-term options for the German government to react to the corona shock and briefl y assesses the package of measures "Schutzschirm für Beschäftigte und Unternehmen" presented on 13 March 2020 by the German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and the German Economics Minister Peter Altmaier.

Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China.

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T-RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.

Iran, sanctions, and the COVID-19 crisis.

With an over 80 million population, Iran is the second-largest country in the Middle East. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread over all 31 provinces of Iran, leading to the most cases and death among the Eastern Mediterranean countries. At the same time, Iran is under the United States political and economic sanctions that compromised Iran's health system. Although medicines and basic medical equipment exempted from the economic sanctions, direct and indirect effects of sanctions have restricted Iran's banking system, and consequently has led to a wide range of limitation on trade, manufacturing sector, insurance and ventures. All these circumstances have meant that Iran is restricted to provide the essential basic medical equipment for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the COVID-19. Although sanctions are not the sole reason for this high rate of mortality and morbidity in a short time period, the chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact. In conclusion, providing health services is one of the major problems of Iran's health system during this pandemic that potentially influence on morbidity and mortality of the COVID-19. Iran needs to be free from sanctions for battling against this crisis.Key messagesIran is one of the countries that significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Iran is under political and economic sanctions that consequently influence on their health system during the COVID-19 crisis.The chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact.

[An Economic Policy Exit Strategy from the Corona Lockdown]. / Überlegungen zur Lockerung des Lockdowns.

The fight against the coronavirus pandemic has led to an insulation of social and economic life and will have considerable economic consequences. Important areas of the industry and service sectors were partially or completely shutdown. A resumption of activity should happen as soon as possible, once the medical pre-conditions have been established and are met. This requires a clear exit strategy and following several steps to return to previous welfare and growth data levels. After securing survival during this crisis via various liquidity lines and bridging loans, the economy's restart requires the relaunch of public infrastructure, especially of schools and kindergartens. To facilitate a coordinated and synchronised restart of complex industrial value chains, we need clear signals on a planned schedule. A tax policy driven departure signal and a demand side focused growth programme could make an important contribution to a new economic dynamic after the crisis.